The Return of the Inconjuncts and the Severe Storms They Bring

Pile up of semi-sextile aspects will result in a severe storm outbreak, including tornadoes.

Another round of powerful Inconjuncts, this time semi-sextiles, will partile next week and some weather services are speculating that there may be severe weather, including tornadoes.

No doubt about it, 12/27 thru New Year’s Eve, there certainly will be a very intense round of a variety of winter storms, probably to include “thunder-snow” and tornadoes also.

HEADS UP !!

Accuweather looking ahead to next week’s potential severe storms.
From Accuweather

Astrological Factors Correctly Forecast Timing of Earthquake Activity (again)

Two Major Earthquakes occur within 35 hours of each other during astrological influence

What is the likelihood of two major earthquakes occurring during a forecast period?

Probability of M7.1 within 1 day of target date is (p) .0694

Probability of M6.1 on exact target date is (p).388

The method of determining the probability of both Quakes occurring during the forecast period is to multiply the (p) of each: .0694 x .388 = (p) .027.

That would be 3 chances out of 100 of getting it right  

Follows are various documentation of this forecast and results

Text of December 8th forecast:                                                                                                                 Here is a shot at an EQ prediction: I see some conditions on December 12th +/- 6hrs EST that are ripe for another significant Quake, M6.4+ . I have documented the time and date by an email to myself.

Text of Gmail to myself
Time & Date Documentation by Gmail

Mercury Quincunx Uranus Results in 100 MPH EF-1 Tornado

The Inconjuncts strike again. A 100 mph EF-1 tornado makes a surprise visit as Mercury forms quincunx to Uranus.

In an earlier post, “Will there be Tornadoes next Week?” I expected a tornado would result from the Mercury/Uranus  & Sun/Pluto inconjuncts forming Monday & Tuesday. In fact a tornado has resulted from this pattern, just a tad earlier than I thought. 

Surprise EF-1 Tornado packing 100 mph winds. This is evidence of Mercury / Uranus at work.

On Sunday morning, a totally unexpected EF-1 struck a Tampa Bay neighborhood and did a considerable amount of damage, just as Mercury, partile to the Lunar Nodes, was within  1*05″ of Uranus, and the rising Capricorn pattern in aspect to Neptune in Pisces .

Tampa Bay FL 12/9/18 8:57 a.m. Mercury in Scorpio partile to Lunar Nodes, just forming Quincunx partile to Uranus in Aries. Ingredients adding to the Tornado result are Rising Capricorn Planets in aspect to Pisces pattern.
Time of touchdown

Time for another Powerful Inconjunct Pattern

At some point in the history of astrology,  Ptolemy’s Inconjunct aspects, the semi-sextile and the quincunx, became relegated to the back burner of an ever increasing number of astrological paradigms. In today’s astrology, if considered at all, they are regarded as “minor” and are regarded as less significant than other, more ‘modern’ factors.

This coming Monday night, December 10th, and all day Tuesday December 11th, there is a very distinct pattern of inconjuncts forming between some very powerful planetary factors: Scorpio Mercury 150* Aries Uranus, partile at 29*, and at the same time,  Sagittarius Sun 30* Capricorn Pluto, partile at 20* 

A powerful Inconjunct pattern forming overnight on Monday December 10 and early Tuesday morning the 11th. Mercury 150* Uranus and Sun 30* Pluto. Powerful cyclones are indicated.

I believe these factors will result in another outbreak of cyclone activity. Probably tornadoes in the Southern USA, and maybe some tropical cyclone activity in the southern hemisphere.

Here is a chart showing the large spikes in tornado action during the last two inconjunct patterns at the end of October and December 1st: 

The Grey columns are the average expected tornadoes on any one day and the red columns are the actual number of tornadoes. Please note the spikes at the end of October and the end of November, the results of the inconjunct factor

December Tornado Outbreak: Another Lesson on the Inconjunct Factor

December Tornado Outbreak:  Another Lesson on the Inconjunct Factor

As astrologer’s, it’s not too often that we see a planetary pattern repeat itself nearly exactly and then to have the nearly exact same results repeat themselves precisely on time, but that is what has just happened on 12/1/18 in central Illinois.

Taylorville Illinois 12/1/18 @ 5 P.M. Aspect Pattern a near exact repeat of the Halloween Storms of 10/31/18

Aspects in Partile 10/31/18

I posted a forecast on October 30th at 2:13pm (see “The Storms of Halloween”) regarding an exact Venus-Uranus opposition with Mercury also becoming exact as a semi-sextile and quincunx participant in the overall pattern, which could be described as a ‘half-Yod’. The final result was that the October 31st outbreak became the top tornado day of 2018.

Aspects at Partile 12/1/18

Through the magic of retrograding planets, this exact pattern has reformed itself on December 1st, resulting in another destructive tornado outbreak, though slightly less intense. The Halloween Outbreak was a lot stronger on account of the quarter Moon at perigee and the ‘half-Yod’ being partile to the Lunar Nodes.

On many occasions I have observed an Inconjunct in effect during the most severe storms. I believe the lesson here is that it is a mistake for the astrological community to consider the Inconjuncts as ‘minor’ or even omitting them altogether. They are an integral part of an entire twelve-fold cycle of Signs interacting with other Signs by means of varying planetary alignments.

Earthquake Forecast Experiment-Final Results 11/30/18

Successful Results for the Experimental Earthquake Forecast of November 2018

Astrological Model: 8 EQ/12Frcst = 67% correct, (p) .03                                   Control Group Model: 5 EQ/12Frcst = 42% correct, (p) .22

November 30, 2018

Even though the M7.0 earthquake that occurred in Alaska today was not in my forecast, it certainly serves the excellent purpose of calling attention to the need to understand when these things are coming. The experts on the TV today are saying that they can forecast where the geologic stresses are building up and a range of years & probabilities when they might happen, but they just don’t know what day earthquake activity will occur. This, I believe, is an area where astrology can be of enormous benefit.

First, a word of disclosure and apology. About mid-way through the month, I had a severe case of ‘thinking too much’ and did a minor revision of the forecast days of the 24th & 27th. This was a mistake that I regret and rescind and pledge not to do that again. As is usually the case, one’s first instinct is usually the right one. The following analysis is of the original forecast posted on this website and NCGR’s Facebook page on or about 10/30.

This somewhat mysterious chart below is a proprietary tool that I call Zodoc and I use it and a number of other metrics to forecast extreme mundane events such severe storms, tropical cyclones and, in this case, earthquakes.

 

 

This is a list of the earthquakes from USGS converting the Z time of record to Eastern Standard Time. Each forecast window is 36 hours, centered at noon of the forecast date.

Dates and Times in Eastern Standard Time

This graphic summarizes the actual EQ’s (red) compared to the expected EQ activity days (black). Of the 12 EQ’s forecast, 8 occurred in the forecast window, for an overall score of 67% and a binomial distribution probability of (p) .03, or about 3 chances in 100 tries to get a score of 67%.

Of the 20 days that no EQ was expected 15 were correct, for a score of 75%, and a binomial probability of (p) .09, or about 9 chances out of 100 of getting 75% correct.

There are 32 days (trials) in this test and 23 correct EQ or no-EQ days, for an overall score of a 72% correct forecast. Adding the (p) values for the EQ/no-EQ results (.03 +.09) gives a value of (p) .12, or about 12 chances out of 100 of getting 72% correct for the month.

We get a much different result for the Random Dates Control Group. Of the 12 EQ’s forecast, 5 occurred in the forecast window, for an overall score of 42% and a binomial distribution probability of (p) .22, or about 22 chances in 100 tries to get a score of 42%.

Of the 20 days that no EQ was expected 12 were correct, for a score of 60%, and a binomial probability of (p) .18, or about 18 chances out of 100 of getting 60% correct.

There are 32 days (trials) in this test and 17 correct EQ or no-EQ days, for an overall score of a 53% correct forecast.

Adding the (p) values for the EQ/no-EQ results (.22 +.18) gives a value of (p) .40, or about 40 chances out of 100 of getting a low overall score of 53% correct for the month.

The final result is 72% success for the astrological model, with a (p) .12

The control group got overall low score of 53% and an insignificant probability of  (p) .40.

More analysis to follow, but given the general belief that earthquakes are totally unpredictable, there is some evidence here to challenge that null hypothesis.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Earthquake Experiment 11/18 Update

Despite a total of 5 misses, the experimental astrological forecast model is holding up very well statistically versus the random dates control group forecast model.

The astrological forecast model observes 6 EQ’s occurring out of the 8 that have been predicted so far, for a simple score of 75% correct.

6 ‘hits’ out of 8 ‘trials’ given a frequency of .359 eq’s per day yields a binomial probability of (p) .027, or just 3 chances out of 100 of getting a 75% score on this forecast.

When the ‘no-quake’ days are factored in, the astro-model gets 15 hits out of 20 trials (again,  a simple score of 75% correct) for an impressive binomial distribution value of (p) .005, or just 5 chances out of 1,000 of getting a score of 75% correct.

Lastly, a simple EQ days v. no EQ days analysis reveals a pretty fair correlation value of (r) .47 .

A correlation ratio of .47 is not something one would normally write home about, but given the presumed total unpredictability of earthquakes, these results are worth noting.

On the other hand, the random dates forecast model is performing just as one might expect: according to random chance.

The control group scores 4 EQ’s days out of 9 EQ days predicted, for a simple score of 44%, which is pretty close to the expected daily frequency of M6+ earthquakes :  (f) .359 or 36%

The binomial distribution for 4 ‘hits’ out of 9 ‘trials’ yields a probability for the control group forecast of just (p) .23 or in other words the control gives  nearly 1 in 4 chance of a correct score of 44% .

Finally, the correlation ration for the random dates model is a mere (r) -.01 , which is virtually no correlation at all, as indicated by the widely separated divergent trend lines.

These results, while still just a small sample and a short time frame,  are very powerful evidence of astrological influence over one of the most damnable natural disasters plaguing mankind. I shall continue to ‘tweak’ the model, and if it continues to succeed, I will work to bring this matter to the attention of ‘the powers that be’.

 

 

The Storms of Halloween 2018

During the early afternoon of October 30th I saw on the weather station that there was an enhanced risk of a tornado outbreak in the southern states the following afternoon, on Halloween.

The National Weather Service  gave an assessment of a  15% chance of a tornado in that area on October 31st.

Remembering that 10/31 was a significant date on my Zodoc time series graph,

I drew a transit chart for noon the 31st. Immediately, I recognized the  developing Inconjuncts aspects, a semi-sextile / quincunx , pairing with a powerful opposition as a reliable indicator of very severe weather. So, I immediately made the following post to the NCGR Annapolis Facebook page in order to document the date and time of the post October 30, 2:13pm :

Forecast made on NCGR Annapolis October 30th

As it turned out, the Halloween Tornado Outbreak is the most significant tornado event of 2018, far surpassing the Springtime storms. Sadly, there were fatalities caused by this outbreak in addition to property damage.

I would just like to take this opportunity to point out to astrologers just how potent the Ptolemaic Inconjunct aspects really are. I have observed them many times occurring during the most violent storms on our Planet.