Astrological Factors Correctly Forecast Timing of Earthquake Activity (again)

Two Major Earthquakes occur within 35 hours of each other during astrological influence

What is the likelihood of two major earthquakes occurring during a forecast period?

Probability of M7.1 within 1 day of target date is (p) .0694

Probability of M6.1 on exact target date is (p).388

The method of determining the probability of both Quakes occurring during the forecast period is to multiply the (p) of each: .0694 x .388 = (p) .027.

That would be 3 chances out of 100 of getting it right  

Follows are various documentation of this forecast and results

Text of December 8th forecast:                                                                                                                 Here is a shot at an EQ prediction: I see some conditions on December 12th +/- 6hrs EST that are ripe for another significant Quake, M6.4+ . I have documented the time and date by an email to myself.

Text of Gmail to myself
Time & Date Documentation by Gmail

Earthquake Forecast Experiment-Final Results 11/30/18

Successful Results for the Experimental Earthquake Forecast of November 2018

Astrological Model: 8 EQ/12Frcst = 67% correct, (p) .03                                   Control Group Model: 5 EQ/12Frcst = 42% correct, (p) .22

November 30, 2018

Even though the M7.0 earthquake that occurred in Alaska today was not in my forecast, it certainly serves the excellent purpose of calling attention to the need to understand when these things are coming. The experts on the TV today are saying that they can forecast where the geologic stresses are building up and a range of years & probabilities when they might happen, but they just don’t know what day earthquake activity will occur. This, I believe, is an area where astrology can be of enormous benefit.

First, a word of disclosure and apology. About mid-way through the month, I had a severe case of ‘thinking too much’ and did a minor revision of the forecast days of the 24th & 27th. This was a mistake that I regret and rescind and pledge not to do that again. As is usually the case, one’s first instinct is usually the right one. The following analysis is of the original forecast posted on this website and NCGR’s Facebook page on or about 10/30.

This somewhat mysterious chart below is a proprietary tool that I call Zodoc and I use it and a number of other metrics to forecast extreme mundane events such severe storms, tropical cyclones and, in this case, earthquakes.

 

 

This is a list of the earthquakes from USGS converting the Z time of record to Eastern Standard Time. Each forecast window is 36 hours, centered at noon of the forecast date.

Dates and Times in Eastern Standard Time

This graphic summarizes the actual EQ’s (red) compared to the expected EQ activity days (black). Of the 12 EQ’s forecast, 8 occurred in the forecast window, for an overall score of 67% and a binomial distribution probability of (p) .03, or about 3 chances in 100 tries to get a score of 67%.

Of the 20 days that no EQ was expected 15 were correct, for a score of 75%, and a binomial probability of (p) .09, or about 9 chances out of 100 of getting 75% correct.

There are 32 days (trials) in this test and 23 correct EQ or no-EQ days, for an overall score of a 72% correct forecast. Adding the (p) values for the EQ/no-EQ results (.03 +.09) gives a value of (p) .12, or about 12 chances out of 100 of getting 72% correct for the month.

We get a much different result for the Random Dates Control Group. Of the 12 EQ’s forecast, 5 occurred in the forecast window, for an overall score of 42% and a binomial distribution probability of (p) .22, or about 22 chances in 100 tries to get a score of 42%.

Of the 20 days that no EQ was expected 12 were correct, for a score of 60%, and a binomial probability of (p) .18, or about 18 chances out of 100 of getting 60% correct.

There are 32 days (trials) in this test and 17 correct EQ or no-EQ days, for an overall score of a 53% correct forecast.

Adding the (p) values for the EQ/no-EQ results (.22 +.18) gives a value of (p) .40, or about 40 chances out of 100 of getting a low overall score of 53% correct for the month.

The final result is 72% success for the astrological model, with a (p) .12

The control group got overall low score of 53% and an insignificant probability of  (p) .40.

More analysis to follow, but given the general belief that earthquakes are totally unpredictable, there is some evidence here to challenge that null hypothesis.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Earthquake Experiment 11/18 Update

Despite a total of 5 misses, the experimental astrological forecast model is holding up very well statistically versus the random dates control group forecast model.

The astrological forecast model observes 6 EQ’s occurring out of the 8 that have been predicted so far, for a simple score of 75% correct.

6 ‘hits’ out of 8 ‘trials’ given a frequency of .359 eq’s per day yields a binomial probability of (p) .027, or just 3 chances out of 100 of getting a 75% score on this forecast.

When the ‘no-quake’ days are factored in, the astro-model gets 15 hits out of 20 trials (again,  a simple score of 75% correct) for an impressive binomial distribution value of (p) .005, or just 5 chances out of 1,000 of getting a score of 75% correct.

Lastly, a simple EQ days v. no EQ days analysis reveals a pretty fair correlation value of (r) .47 .

A correlation ratio of .47 is not something one would normally write home about, but given the presumed total unpredictability of earthquakes, these results are worth noting.

On the other hand, the random dates forecast model is performing just as one might expect: according to random chance.

The control group scores 4 EQ’s days out of 9 EQ days predicted, for a simple score of 44%, which is pretty close to the expected daily frequency of M6+ earthquakes :  (f) .359 or 36%

The binomial distribution for 4 ‘hits’ out of 9 ‘trials’ yields a probability for the control group forecast of just (p) .23 or in other words the control gives  nearly 1 in 4 chance of a correct score of 44% .

Finally, the correlation ration for the random dates model is a mere (r) -.01 , which is virtually no correlation at all, as indicated by the widely separated divergent trend lines.

These results, while still just a small sample and a short time frame,  are very powerful evidence of astrological influence over one of the most damnable natural disasters plaguing mankind. I shall continue to ‘tweak’ the model, and if it continues to succeed, I will work to bring this matter to the attention of ‘the powers that be’.

 

 

Earthquake Experiment Update 11/14

11/14/18 update
Updating the Results for the November Earthquake Forecast
The astrological model I am experimenting with seems to be holding up quite well, though it is very early and still a small sample. Nonetheless, there is a 15-day period that can be examined and the probabilities (p) of the results can be measured.
A real test will be the 12th/13th forecast, when the model shows maximum stress.
11/14 update: The 12th & 13th forecast did not materialize at all, quite the opposite in fact. Daily EQ activity dropped from an average of 40 to 50 total EQ’s per day to 20 – 25 on the 12th & 13th. Worth noting that.

Forecast Posted 10/29, to begin 10/30:

4 hits (eq’s) out of 6 trials (days) @ (f) .366 = (p).108 or about 11 chance out of 100

8 hits (no-eq) out of 9 trials (days) @ (f).634 = (p).086 or about 9 chance out of 100

combined (joint occurrence) 12 hits in 15 days = .108 x .086 = .009 of about 9 chances out of 1,000.

 

Despite the 3 misses on the 11th, 12th & 13th, this forecast model remains strong with a binomial probability of 9 chances out of 1,000 and a good correlation ratio of 60%.

Please observe how closely the red lines (earthquakes) and blue lines (astro-forecast) intersect and follow each other.

As a comparison, a control group of 12 dates was randomly generated and graphed.

1 hits (eq’s) out of 6 trials (days) @ (f) .366 = (p).225 or about 23 chance out of 100
5 hits (no-eq) out of 9 trials (days) @ (f).634 = (p).232 or about 23 chance out of 100
combined (joint occurrence) 6 hits in 15 days = .225 x .232 = .052 of about 5 chances out of 100.

Please observe that the red lines (earthquakes) and blue lines (random-forecast) barely intersect and don’t follow each other for a negative correlation of -.29