Experimental Earthquake Forecasting

METHODOLOGY AND PARAMETERS

  Purpose of Experiments

Testing the hypothesis that the TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITY may be accurately predicted by means of astrological methods. Experiments may be for a single date, a group of dates, or as a monthly forecast. Forecasts will be for significant earthquake activity of Magnitude 6.0 or greater. These forecasts are not location specific.

Astrological Factors

Model is in early stages of development and forecasts are still rough estimates. Numerous factors considered as predictors, individually and in combinations, and shall remainas proprietary information for the time being.

Forecast Dates

Astrological factors are calculated for 12 noon EST of each forecast date and forecast windows will be +/- 18 hours from that Noon EST reference, for a total forecast window of 36 hours.

Forecasts will be posted on this website as a blogpost, then publicly on social media(like NCGR Facebook pages) so as to authenticate the time and date of forecast. Summaries and reports posted on this website.

Assessment of Results

Results of each test will be published as a blog post. Until a better method of display is figured out, please refer to the drop down menu for Results Postings.

The probability (p) of resulting earthquake events will be determined by means of the Binomial Distribution function, MS Excel spreadsheet program. Probabilities of joint occurrences of independent events (several quakes occurring) is determined by multiplying the terms, and the probabilities of dependent, mutually exclusive, events (EQ Day v. No-EQ Day) is determined by adding the terms.

Daily EQ Probabilities

Data source: https://earthquake.usgs.gov

EQ Days

M6+ = (p) 0.388 per day

50yrs x 365.25=18,263 days in Sample Space

(1968-2017) M6+= 7,081 eq ÷ 18,263 days  

M7+ = (p) 0.036 per day

92yrs x 365.25= 33,603 days in Sample Space                                             

(1925-2016) M7+ = 1,205 eq ÷ 33,603 days 

M8+ = (p) 0.002 per day

113yrs x 365.25 = 41,273 days in Sample Space

(1905-2017) M8+= 94 eq ÷ 41,273 days

No-EQ Days

No-M6+ EQ Day = (p).612 (1.00 – .388)

No-M7+ EQ Day = (p).964 (1.00 – .036)

No-M8+ EQ Day = (p).998 (1.00 – .002)

Current EQ activity can be found at: https://earthquake.usgs.gov