METHODOLOGY AND PARAMETERS
Purpose of Experiments
Testing the hypothesis that the TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITY may be accurately predicted by means of astrological methods. Experiments may be for a single date, a group of dates, or as a monthly forecast. Forecasts will be for significant earthquake activity of Magnitude 6.0 or greater. These forecasts are not location specific.
Model is in early stages of development and forecasts are still rough estimates. Numerous factors considered as predictors, individually and in combinations, and shall remainas proprietary information for the time being.
Astrological factors are calculated for 12 noon EST of each forecast date and forecast windows will be +/- 18 hours from that Noon EST reference, for a total forecast window of 36 hours.
Forecasts will be posted on this website as a blogpost, then publicly on social media(like NCGR Facebook pages) so as to authenticate the time and date of forecast. Summaries and reports posted on this website.
Assessment of Results
Results of each test will be published as a blog post. Until a better method of display is figured out, please refer to the drop down menu for Results Postings.
The probability (p) of resulting earthquake events will be determined by means of the Binomial Distribution function, MS Excel spreadsheet program. Probabilities of joint occurrences of independent events (several quakes occurring) is determined by multiplying the terms, and the probabilities of dependent, mutually exclusive, events (EQ Day v. No-EQ Day) is determined by adding the terms.
Daily EQ Probabilities
Data source: https://earthquake.usgs.gov
M6+ = (p) 0.388 per day
50yrs x 365.25=18,263 days in Sample Space
(1968-2017) M6+= 7,081 eq ÷ 18,263 days
M7+ = (p) 0.036 per day
92yrs x 365.25= 33,603 days in Sample Space
(1925-2016) M7+ = 1,205 eq ÷ 33,603 days
M8+ = (p) 0.002 per day
113yrs x 365.25 = 41,273 days in Sample Space
(1905-2017) M8+= 94 eq ÷ 41,273 days
No-M6+ EQ Day = (p).612 (1.00 – .388)
No-M7+ EQ Day = (p).964 (1.00 – .036)
No-M8+ EQ Day = (p).998 (1.00 – .002)
Current EQ activity can be found at: https://earthquake.usgs.gov